-

, ,
- -
 








:

0611

6-

 

 

 








201005













, ( 1)

1

-

,

.

- ,

,

Ni

-

-

N=

*Ni

-

- , .

ti

,

.


t

( )


*

P(j)

-

-

.

n

-


nj

5

39

1300

50700

2000

2

1

1

15

2

0

14

8

0

12

10

1

10



1)     

ti * ti 39 * 2000

= = = = 39000

nϠ nϠ 1 + 1

2) -

ti * ti 39 * 2000

= = = = 1529

n͠ n͠ 15+14+12+10

3) N

Ni * Ni 39 * 1300

N = = = = 994 .

n͠ n͠ 51

4) N ,

Ni * Ni 39 * 1300

N = = = = 25350 .

nϠ nϠ 2

1) j () (j)

, .

* nj + nj

P(j) =

N

* - 4

P(1)= (1+15)/50700 = 3,16 *10

* - 4

P(2)= (0+14)/50700 = 2,76 *10

* - 4

P(8)= (0+12)/50700 = 2,37 *10

* - 4

P(10)= (1+10)/50700 = 2,17 *10


2) j () (/j)

, , ,

j

, , .

nj

(/j) =

nj + nj


*

(/1) = 1/(1+15) = 0,0625

*

(/2) = 0/(0+14) = 0

*

(/8) = 0/(0+12) = 0

*

(/10) = 1/(1+10) = 0,0909

*

3) (j/) j ()

, j j .

 

* nj

(j / ) =

n


*

(1/ ) = 1/2 = 0,5

*

(2/ ) = 0/2 = 0

*

(8/ ) = 0/2 = 0

*

(10/ ) = 1/2 = 0,5

*

4) (j/) j ()

, j j .


* nj

(j / ) =

n

*

(1/ ) = 15/51 = 0,294

*

(2/ ) = 14/51 = 0,275

*

(8/ ) = 12/51 = 0,235

*

(10/ ) = 10/51 = 0,196

*

5) (/+) j () .

, j j .



* nj + nj

(j/+) =

n + n

*

(1/+) = (1+15)/(2+51) = 0,302

*

(2/+) = (0+14)/53 = 0,246

*

(8/+) = (0+12)/53 = 0,226

*

(10/+) = (1+10)/53 = 0,208


- j- () j- (), :


j() = (/j)


1) j- :

* * njϠ nj + nj͠ nj

j() = (/j) * (j) = * =

* -5 nj + nj N N

1() = 1/39*1300=1,97*10

*

2() = 0/50700=0

*

8() = 0/50700 = 0

* -5

10() = 1/50700 = 1,97*10


 

 

2) j- j()

* * * -5 -5 -5

() = (/j) * (j) = j() = 1,97*10 + 0 + 0 + 1,97*10 = 3,94*10

 


3) :

* * * * -5

= 1 - (/j) * (j) = 1 -() = 1 3,94*10 = 0,9999606

 


. , , , * -t/T

=

, :

* * -5

= 1 = t/T = 2/39000 = 5,13*10

, 5- 39000 2 , .


N N

N :

()1 = ()2 = ..= ()j = .=()N

. , .. (n) , (n=1,2.., N)

na na N - na

(n) = N * () ( 1 ())

na N!

N =

na! (N n)!


N n = 0

N

= (n = 0) = (1 ())


N, Ϡ () , , , , , :

na

(N) - N*(n)

(n) = * 堠

n!

:

-5

- N*(n) -50700*5,13*10

= 堠 = 堠 = 0,0742






  1. , , ,
  2. . 1,2 , 1994











 

- 2009