Статья: Bilateral relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials
Статья: Bilateral relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials
Bilateral
relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials
The archival measure of integrative
complexity, developed by Suedfeld and Rank (1976), is one of several procedures
for the systematic study of documentary evidence to infer various
characteristics of the interactions between countries (e.g., Axelrod, 1976;
Ertel, 1972; George, 1969; Hermann, 1980; Mehrabian, 1967; Winter, 1987).
Integrative complexity is defined as the joint operation of two components of
information processing: differentiation (the perception of 'The University of
British Columbia. 601 0162-895X/92/1200-0601$06.50/1 ? 1992 International
Society of Political Psychology
Suedfeld several dimensions in a stimulus
situation or of several perspectives on the situation) and integration (the
recognition of relations among differentiated dimensions or perspectives, e.g.,
as interacting, as capable of being integrated, or as being relevant to some
overarching event or idea). Evidence of differentiation and integration in verbal
(written or oral) statements can be reliably assessed by trained scorers (see
Method). A large number of studies have shown level of complexity to vary with
environmental and personal stress, political ideology, and social role, inter
alia (Suedfeld, Tetlock, & Streufert, 1992). Most of these studies have
used governmental documents or the pronouncements of officials as the data
sources. Level of complexity is important because it indicates differences in
decision-making strategies: for example, sever- al studies have confirmed the
association between reduced complexity of governmental communications during
international crises and imminent war (Suedfeld & Tetlock, 1977; Suedfeld,
Tetlock, & Ramirez, 1977; Suedfeld & Bluck, 1988). Periods of
international crisis are associated with reductions in complexity not only in
official documents but also in such diverse materials as personal letters,
editorials in a scientific journal, and presidential addresses to the American
Psychological Association (Porter & Suedfeld, 1981; Suedfeld, 1981, 1985).
These data may indicate a general state of rising tension within a society,
which in turn may affect information processing and decision-making at both the
private and public levels: for example, it may influence readiness for or
against negotiated compromise as the solution to problems. The overwhelming
majority of archival materials used in such studies have consisted of
governmental communications, memoranda, policy papers, and the like, and the
private or professional correspondence and speeches of various societal elites.
Relatively little attention has been paid to the mass media, except as they
reproduce the other kinds of materials. Systematic content analysis of media
content has been used to study various aspects of national and international
politics-e.g., to identify publications that served as disguised propaganda
outlets for Nazi Germany, to monitor sequential changes in Comintern policy
toward and away from cooperation with noncommunist countries and groups
(Lasswell, Leites, & associates, 1949). Structural-i.e.,
complexity-analysis may also provide interesting data. The current study
focuses on the association between international relations and the complexity
of editorials in periodicals of broad readership and impact. Further, it looks
at the concomitants of events that are more "normal" than
international crises: that is, events that affect relations between pairs of
countries positively or negatively but for the most part without carrying major
risks such as war. Both communist bloc and Western publications were included
to assess possible differences between the two types of system in this respect.
Three major questions are addressed: 602
Bilateral Relations Between Countries and
the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials 1. Will the complexity of newspaper
editorials reflect lessening or increasing levels of international tension even
when events do not reach the level of crisis but are of a more routine nature
(such as trade agreements, diplomatic visits, U.N. votes, and the like)? Our
hypothesis was that such changes would be found, showing the effects of
"disruptive stress": i.e., changed complexity in times of increasing
tension. 2. Will there be a difference between publications of communist and
Western countries in this regard? One might expect so. In the former case,
until very recently newspapers were instruments of the government and supported
the government's current policies. While American and Canadian newspapers may
be more or less subject to subtle governmental reinforcement (e.g.,
"leaks" of restricted information) or the lack of it, as well as
needing to stay in step with public opinion, editorial philosophies are
developed within the newspaper and may or may not be congruent with governmental
views (cf. Charles, Shore, & Todd, 1979; Downing, 1988; Dreier, 1982). On
the other hand, the effects of international tension on complexity have been
shown to be quite pervasive in society-but these findings were based on times
of crisis. We predicted that there would be a closer association between
tension and editorial complexity in the communist than in the Western sources.
3. The third question involves the absolute level of complexity rather than
changes in complexity. Because of previous findings, we predicted that Pravda
will generally show lower complexity-more dogmatism, less flexibility and
recognition of alternate points of view-than the Western publications. The
relevant findings showed such differences between American and Soviet govern-
mental statements (Suedfeld et al., 1977; Tetlock, 1988; Wallace &
Suedfeld, 1988), although the current reformist leaders of the U.S.S.R. may
break the pattern (Tetlock & Boettger, 1989). METHOD The two types of data
used in this study were 1. Editorials from national newspapers, scored for
integrative complexity. 2. Events involving both members of each pair of
countries, scored on a scale of extremely positive to extremely negative.
Source Documents The documents analyzed were editorials that appeared in the newspaper
of a particular country (the "source country") and had as their topic
relations with, or the actions of, a specific other country (the "subject
country"). The source 603
Suedfeld countries were the Soviet Union,
Canada, and the United States; the subject countries were these three plus the
People's Republic of China. The choice of newspapers was based on the national
and international prominence of the publications. This was no problem in the
case of the U.S.S.R. Pravda was an official national newspaper with wide
domestic and foreign circulation. Its 11 million subscribers and up to 40
million readers included the elite of the Soviet Union: members of the
intelligentsia (22% of the readership), engineers and technicians (18%), and
90% of the members of the Communist Party. More than any other Soviet
newspaper, Pravda had the "task of presenting Party policy, in the most
unambiguous and authoritative form, both for domestic consumption and for the
world outside" (Roxburgh, 1987, p. 79). The New York Times is certainly
one of the most prestigious and widely distributed American dailies. In a 1982
poll of newspaper publishers, editors, and professors of journalism, it was a
clear first choice as the best newspaper in the country, a tradition it has long
held by "telling the news with completeness and integrity" (Emery
& Emery, 1984, p. 653). It has long been considered the newspaper of
record, and has been described as "a key part of every Washington
journalist's and every legislator's morning. The Times is an indispensable
source for writers, editors and embassies. It's sober, steady and hardly ever
rocks the establishment boat; it's been viewed by foreign governments as a
reliable chronicle of American positions" (Tataryn, 1985, p. 71). Although
Canada has no real equivalent of either of the above two publications, the
Toronto Globe and Mail calls itself, and is generally considered to be the
closest approximation of, Canada's national (rather than local or regional)
newspaper (Tataryn, 1985). Like the other two, it is distributed nationwide and
appeals primarily to a relatively well-educated readership. Relevant editorials
(those dealing with any of the four subject countries) were collected from
these three newspapers (for Pravda, using the English translations in The
Current Digest of the Soviet Press) for every year between 1947 and 1982. There
were some problems in selecting material to be scored. Most editorials in all
of the newspapers dealt with domestic issues, and in some years few editorials
appeared dealing with some subject countries (both the Times and Pravda had
relatively few editorials related to Canada). Furthermore, these editorials
varied greatly in length. We decided to use databases of equal size as far as
possible. For each source newspaper during each year, all editorials dealing
with the subject country were identified. The complete texts of up to five of
these (all, if there were only five or fewer in the sample; otherwise, five
were selected randomly) were copied into the computer, which then used a random
numbers program to select five scorable paragraphs. The selected paragraphs
were pre- pared for scoring by the removal of any names, dates, or other
specific material that would identify either the source or the subject country.
604
Bilateral Relations Between Countries and
the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials Complexity Scoring Each paragraph was
then scored for integrative complexity. The two scorers had participated in a
one-week training workshop and had reached acceptable levels of reliability (r
= .85 or higher) with the trainer on an extensive set of training passages. In
addition, they had performed complexity scoring on previous research materials,
and had maintained an interrater reliability of at least 80% with each other.
This is a more rigorous criterion than the reliability coefficient, as it
requires agreement on specific scores rather than merely a correlation. The
scorers rated each paragraph independently, using a detailed scoring manual as
an additional resource (Baker-Brown, Ballard, Bluck, de Vries, Suedfeld, &
Tetlock, 1992). The scoring system uses a scale of 1-7, with each paragraph
scored separately. The bottom half of the scale (1-3) identifies increasing
levels of differentiation: the recognition and utilization of different
stimulus dimensions, and/or of different perspectives, in judging the stimulus
(which may be another person, an event, an idea, a country, etc.). Scores of
5-7 recognize increased integration (syntheses, interactions, trade-offs) among
the differentiated dimensions or perspectives, with 4 as a transition score
(see Table I for examples). Paragraphs that consist entirely of factual
statements (e.g., statistics, historical events) or quota- Table I. Complexity
of Editorials: Examples Score Year Countries Paragraph 1 1951 USSR-Canada
"Ordinary Canadians are meeting 1952 in a situation of continually
deteriorating living conditions. The number of unemployed, which has reached
almost 200,000, is increasing in the country. Queues of unemployed and homeless
stand at the doors of charitable institutions waiting for Christmas alms."
EXPLANATION OF SCORE: Only one dimension or perspective is presented, i.e., the
plight of unemployed and homeless Canadians. 3 1951 Canada-USA "Events
have justified these assertions all along the line. The facts in the UN survey,
together with what we see happening on this continent, completely discount the
views of those Pollyannas who say inflation has just about run its course.
There is, in fact, no limit to its possible extension so long as the factors
causing it are still operative. Stockpiling has not denuded the world of
essential materials. But it has boosted prices to a new high table-land
undreamed of a few years ago. Higher military production at home has created
new volumes of consumer demand, so that countries abroad are virtually unable
to purchase with their new flood of dollars the full range of American products
which would be useful in stabilizing their respective economies."
EXPLANATION OF SCORE: Several causes of inflation are recognized: stockpiling,
military production, greater consumer demand, and the inability of other
countries to buy American products, even though they have the money. 5 1954
USA-PRC "The British delegation also found out that Mao Tse-tung wants
Britain to spearhead a drive against US foreign policy, and wants trade with
Britain and other Western countries. The latter, presumably, is the bait for
the former." EXPLANATION OF SCORE: Not only are two dimensions recognized
(trade and foreign policy), but a causal inference integrating the two (the
former is being used as a tool to obtain goals related to the latter).
Suedfeld tions, without evaluation or
commentary, are deemed unscorable and are replaced. Interrater disagreements of
one scale point are resolved by discussion; paragraphs where disagreement
reaches two or more points are discarded and replaced. Not all of these
paragraphs were used in the final data analysis, because there were years
during the sampling period when bilateral events involving any pair of
countries could not be characterized as having positive or negative valence
(see Events, below). Table II shows the number of years for which both an
acceptable sample of editorials and valenced events were available. For the total
of 133 country/years, the number of paragraphs used from relevant source
editorials (those dealing with the particular subject country) were five
paragraphs for 50 years each from the Globe and Mail and the Times (total of
250 for each of these two), and from Pravda, five paragraphs for 26 years (=
130) plus seven years with fewer than five relevant paragraphs each (total =
24), for a total of 654 paragraphs included in the data analysis. Mean
complexity ratings were calculated for each newspaper, for each year, for each
subject country. These means were used in the subsequent data analyses. Events
A total of 315 relevant historical events were identified from the Encyclopedia
Britannica Book of the Year in the years 1947-1982. This encyclopedia was used
because its yearbooks note significant events involving major nations soon
after the events occur. Relevant events were operationally defined as those
involving one of the source and one of the subject countries. In preparation
for further scoring, a description of each event was transferred to an index
card. All possible precautions were taken to remove identifying information
such as the names of the countries, well-known individuals, and dates. All
cards were then scored independently on a scale of -3 to +3 by five research
assistants who were uninformed about the topic of this particular study. The
raters were instructed to assign negative numbers when in their judgment the
Table II. Scorable "Country/Years"a Subject Source Canada USSR China
USA Total Canada -14 9 27 50 U.S.S.R. 4 - 13 16 33 U.S.A. 13 27 10 -50 Total 17
41 32 43 133 a Number of years for which both relevant editorials and valenced
events were available. 606
Bilateral Relations Between Countries and
the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials Table III. Positive and Negative Events:
Examples Score Year Countries Event Positive +2.6 1970 Canada-P.R.C. Diplomatic
ties established. +2.4 1981 U.S.A.-U.S.S.R. Trade increases nearly 50% over
previous year Neutral +0.4 1978 U.S.A.-Canada U.S. considering natural-gas
pipeline through Canada; mixed economic results anticipated for Canada. 0.0
1971 U.S.A.-P.R.C. U.S. president says forthcoming visit to the U.S.S.R. has no
connection with visit to P.R.C. Negative -2.4 1980 U.S.A.-U.S.S.R. U.S. boycott
of Moscow Olympic Games. -2.8 1960 U.S.S.R.-U.S.A. Soviets shoot down U.S.
aircraft over Bering Sea event was characterized by or led to international
tension, hostility, conflict, strained or reduced interactions, etc.; and
positive numbers when the event reflected or led to friendship, friendly trade
and exchanges, alliances, agree- ments, treaties and the like (Table III).
Interrater correlations across all events were .82-.90, indicating a high level
of agreement. Six events, which received ambivalent ratings, were dropped.
Although the raters had experience in research on international relations, they
were not professional experts. However, the high interrater agreement indicates
that the stimuli were sufficiently clear-cut that no great degree of expertise
was required to categorize them. Event ratings were then averaged within each
year for use in further analyses. RESULTS As the relations between two
countries became more positive, there was a significantly higher level of
complexity in the editorials of each country referring to the other, r = .26, p
< .001. This pattern did not differ significantly among the countries. Table
IV shows mean complexity scores. The overall means were 1.83 for years with
positive relations and 1.62 for years in which relations were negative, F(1,
132) = 3.67, p < .06. A 2 x 2 ANOVA showed significant differences in
integrative complexity among the countries in which the editorials appeared: Ms
= 1.92 for Canada, 1.81 for the U.S.A., and 1.35 for the U.S.S.R., F(2, 132) =
16.10, p < .0001 (see Table IV). The difference between Canada and the
United States was not statistically significant, but both countries differed
significantly from the Soviet 607
Suedfeld Table IV. Mean Complexity Scores
Positive Years Negative Years Country (No. of Yrs.) (No. of Yrs.) Source:
Toronto Globe and Mail (Canada) Subject U.S.A. 1.99 (18) 1.68 (19) U.S.S.R.
1.93 (9) 1.90 (5) P.R.C. 2.04 (7) 2.00 (2) Source: New York Times (USA) Subject
Canada 2.09 (7) 1.98 (6) U.S.S.R. 1.88 (12) 1.58 (15) P.R.C. 1.97 (6) 1.50 (4)
Source: Pravda (U.S.S.R.) Subject Canada 1.53 (3) 1.00 (1) U.S.A. 1.32 (8) 1.59
(8) P.R.C. 1.18 (5) 1.24 (8) III* -II - III.- - I,~ Union by the Tukey test for
pairwise comparisons. There were no significant differences as a function of which
country was being written about. The three countries differed in the prevalence
of positive and negative interactions. The means were +0.64 for Canada, +0.15
for the U.S.A., and -0.08 for the Soviet Union, F(2, 132) = 3.13, p < .05.
None of the pairwise comparisons was statistically significant. DISCUSSION As
predicted, integrative complexity was negatively correlated with international
tension. This finding extends previous data indicating that international
stress is associated with reduced complexity. Unlike the situation in previous
studies, the events included here consisted primarily of minor or routine
episodes such as international trade transactions and political negotiations.
Event-related changes in complexity, even under such mundane conditions, may be
an indication of how useful the measure is in tracking the impact of world
events. Our data do not indicate to what extent there is an actual change in
how editorial writers process information as opposed to deliberately attempting
to manipulate the tone of public discussion (Tetlock & Manstead, 1985). One
important implication of this finding is the unexpected pervasiveness of
tension-related complexity decrease even when the precipitating events are
with- in the normal range of international relations. The fact that societal
opinion leaders are affected in this way by impending or actual war may have
been less 608
Bilateral Relations Between Countries and
the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials surprising (Porter & Suedfeld, 1981;
Suedfeld, 1981, 1985); but the current findings are novel in implying a broad
domestic effect of relatively minor changes in the intercourse between pairs of
nations. The low intensity of these international transactions was reflected in
the mean ratings assigned to events. The high positive mean score for Canada
may reflect the absence of serious confrontations between Canada and the other
countries studied, at least since the end of the Korean War. International
events involving the United States and the Soviet Union averaged closer to the
neutral point, with the U.S. slightly on the positive side and the U.S.S.R.
slightly on the negative. This is not surprising: during the years involved,
Canada and the United States generally agreed on a wide range of issues while the
Soviet Union was in opposition to both of them as well as, for much of the
period, to the People's Republic of China. Presumably, the results would have
been different had we included more Warsaw Pact countries or if we had extended
the study past 1989. The association between international relations and
newspaper editorials was similar in Western and communist countries. Although
editorials in Pravda were essentially official statements of the government
(Roxburgh, 1987), the tie between governmental and editorial policy is a
controversial issue in the West. Both the Globe and Mail and the Times are
generally considered "establish- ment." They are not radical
opponents of the system of government of their country. At times (particularly
in crisis situations), they cooperate with the government by suppressing or
delaying the publication of some item or even by sharing information (e.g.,
Salisbury, 1980). In turn, government figures frequently take their cue from
these newspapers (Tataryn, 1985). On the other hand, both the Times and the
Globe and Mail have a record of vigorously and frequently dissenting from
governmental policies and positions. Perhaps the most dramatic example in
recent history was the publication of the Pentagon Papers in the Times; but the
paper also opposed many other aspects of domestic and foreign policy through
successive administrations. Similarly, the Globe and Mail (like many other
Canadian newspapers) often expresses its opposition to current policies (see,
e.g., Rutherford, 1978; Westell, 1977). Thus, another surprising finding was
the close association between governmental ac- tions and the treatment of such
actions in even independent print media. The finding that all three papers show
editorial changes in complexity consonant with international events may be a
reflection of the direct or indirect influence of the government on the media.
Another interpretation is that government officials and editorial writers share
a set of viewpoints that evokes similar reactions in response to particular
events. These hypotheses, of course, are not mutually exclusive. Pravda was
consistently lower in complexity than the Western newspapers. Until very
recently, the same pattern has characterized Soviet diplomatic state- 609
Suedfeld ments compared to those of
various other governments (Suedfeld et al., 1977; Tetlock, 1988; Tetlock &
Boettger, 1989; Wallace & Suedfeld, 1988). These differences may reflect
(a) a greater need on the part of Soviet sources to seek clarity and avoid
ambiguity, (b) dogmatic ideological or defensive attitudes, (c) different
rhetorical and linguistic traditions, or (d) different goals in impression
management. The last of these may involve the wish to project an image of high
complexity (considering all sides of an issue, tolerance for uncertainty and
dis- agreement) by Western sources and/or to project low complexity (party
unity, decisiveness, certainty, lack of ambivalence) by Soviet ones (Tetlock,
1988; Tetlock & Manstead, 1985). As mentioned earlier, another factor could
be the relatively high chronic tension that existed in the period under study
between the U.S.S.R. and the two Western countries, as compared to relations
between the latter two. Among topics for future research are comparisons of
such prestigious publications as those in our sample with more mass-oriented
print and electronic media; the relation among official policy statements,
private commentary by national leaders, and the media; and comparisons between
newspapers associated with governing versus opposition parties. The study of
editorial complexity of Eastern European and Soviet publications in the
glasnost era would also be interesting. The findings demonstrate the pervasive
interaction among governmental actions, political climate, and the media, as
well as the sensitivity of the complexity measure to even low-key shifts in
international tension. Because of this sensitivity, complexity may be a
particularly good variable to use in future research on mass media.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was made possible by a grant from the Social
Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The assistance of Gloria
Baker-Brown, Susan Bluck, Luzbea Piedrahita, Wendy Ross, and Alistair B. C.
Wallbaum in various aspects of the research is gratefully acknowledged.
Correspondence should be addressed to the author at Department of Psychology,
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